The big dogs and underdogs in 2025’s GPHG
Russell SheldrakeIt’s getting to that time of year again. The Oscars of the watch world – also known as the Grand Prix d’horlogerie de Genève (GPHG) – is starting to kick into motion. This year’s long list of competing watches has been released and is now with the 1000+ strong Academy members to whittle down to 90 timepieces spread across 15 different categories.
As a newly minted member of the GPHG Academy, I felt it was my duty to go through all of these watches, not only to cast my vote on them, but also to tell you what I think are the dead favourites in every category and the one watch that I think may cause an upset on the night. Just as we have done with auctions in the past, I have gone through and picked my ‘big dog’ and ‘underdog’ entry in all 15 categories – that is, the watches that I think are poised to dominate, as well as watches that are flying under the radar somewhat but might end up taking the win.
These don’t necessarily represent the watches I voted for, but the ones I think will get the votes once we get to the final round of voting, when the 30-strong jury casts their final votes later in the year. I have not listed who I think will be likely to get the individual prizes, such as the Aiguille d’Or or the Special Jury prize, as those are very much up in the air and not something that the Academy gets a say in. Plus, there is plenty to write about when just considering the 15 main categories…
Ladies
Big dog: Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Mini Frosted Gold
This has been a surprisingly divisive watch when seen out in the real world. Personally, I’ve been a massive fan of seeing it being stacked with another one in a different gold colour on the red carpet, as it feels like the ultimate expression of a watch as a piece of jewellery. The Royal Oak is such a legendary design that even shrunk down to 23mm, it is unmistakable. And while “Ladies'” watches continued to be viewed as pieces of jewellery before anything else, this seems to be the best ladies’ watch this year.
Underdog: Gérald Genta Gentissima Orsin Fire Opal
Two Genta designs are in the running for this award, if you ask me. However, the rebirth of the GéraldGenta brand recently has been a treat for me and these Orsin models seem to capture the free-spirited nature of Genta’s designs when he was given carte blanche and he was able to create watches that look like nothing else on the market. The fact that it is so different is what makes it an underdog, in my opinion, as the design is certainly pretty divisive. To me, it’s a killer watch.
Ladies complication
Big dog: Hermès Cut Le Temp Suspendu
I’m a big fan of complications that have no practical purpose but speak to a more poetic functionality, and that is exactly what we have with the Hermès Cut Le Temp Suspendu. At the press of a button, time stops, and the watch becomes an object of design above all else. As pretty much all complications today have outlived their real-world usage, having something like this speaks to what a complication can be today if we throw off the restraints of historical baggage. I was originally not convinced by this watch when it was released at Watches and Wonders earlier this year, but I’ve come back around on it.
Underdocg: Milléchron x Alessandro Rigotto Marquis Constellation
I’m ashamed to say that this is a watch I wasn’t fully aware of before looking through this year’s nominations, and now I’ve done a bit more reading, it seems like a serious contender to me. The only things holding it back would be its limited recognisability and brand perception. But the movement construction and design here is near faultless. With an elegant execution of a planisphere on the dial, I would certainly like this to make the final short list if it doesn’t win it all.
Mens
Big dog: Urban Jürgensen UJ-2
When the relaunch of Urban Jürgensen was announced earlier this year, I was rather excited: having handled a few neo-vintage examples over the years and appreciated their quality in design and construction, I was hoping for something similar with this revival. And the team that Kari Voutilainen built for this certainly didn’t disappoint. This is the simplest piece that they released, and it still contains one of the most demanding escapements to construct and get right. The release of this new collection had such an impact on the industry that I think this could be a big year for UJ at the GPHG.
Underdog: Zenith G.F.J. Calibre 135
This watch caught so many people’s eyes at Watches and Wonders this year (including mine and Jamie’s!) – it’s fair to say that it was a bit of a show-stopper. Having a dress watch from Zenith that combines historical and highly accurate calibres, stone dials, and design elements that link it to the brand’s historical manufacture building, you can see why myself and another colleague were fighting over this one being our watch of the fair. However, it still didn’t make the same amount of noise in the industry as Urban Jürgensen and has gone under the radar with the wider public, so that’s why I have to put it as my underdog here. I also could not talk about this category without also mentioning the Grand Seiko Spring Drive U.F.A and Louis Vuitton Tambour Convergence, both watches I think are in with a chance, and definitely deserve to make that short list.
Mens complication
Big dog: Urban Jürgensen UJ-3
No surprise here, Urban Jürgensen are back with the perpetual calendar UJ-3. Everything I said above applies here, but it is amplified by the inclusion of the incredible, asymmetric perpetual calendar display that the team at Urban Jürgensen has opted to go for here. You can tell from the view through the display caseback that the movement base is the same as the time-only version, and so the perpetual calendar is likely modular, but I’m certain this movement would have been designed to have that module fit as seamlessly as possible.
Underdog: Naoya Hida & Co NH TYPE6A
This is possibly one of the most softly spoken watches in this year’s competition. The simplicity of the dial layout reminds me strongly of my favourite perpetual calendar of all time: the Patek Philippe 3940 first series with its sharp cut sub-dials. I don’t think this watch gets enough respect as it should, especially in the Western press, and that is because it comes from Japan and isn’t made by Grand Seiko with a nature-inspired dial. (We covered it, though!) This watch reminds me of old-school watchmaking and that’s why I love it, but that might not be enough to win this tough category.
Iconic
Big dog: Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar Sand Gold
Can you get more iconic than a Royal Oak? It’s a hard point to argue against, given just how pervasive that design has been over the last 50 years, and when you add in one of the most iconic complications, you are only amplifying the iconic nature of the watch. And yes, I’m aware of just how many times I’ve said iconic here, but when you look at the rules for this category, they are pretty loose, and I quote: “This prize rewards the best watch competing in the Iconic category.” And to me, a Royal Oak QP trumps pretty much everything else. Wrap it in Sand Gold and it feels pretty unbeatable.
Underdog: Breguet Classique Souscription 2025
Well, that AP would be unbeatable if Breguet hadn’t come out of nowhere this year and delivered a masterclass in classical minimalism with the new single-handed Classique Souscription. There are so many things about this watch that Breguet got right, from the secret signatures to the flawless execution of the Breguet numerals and hand, adding just enough flourish to a sparse dial that means you get to really enjoy its sculptural shape. But it still has to compete with the watch we know and love in the Royal Oak.
Tourbillon
Big dog: Louis Vuitton Tambour Taiko Spin Time Air Flying Tourbillon
I’ve been a fan of the Tambour ever since its redesign in 2023, and the expansion of the line has been a real joy to see. The addition of these complications only builds on what Jean Arnault started a couple of years ago, and they have integrated these new functions in an incredibly aesthetic way, which is something that gets overlooked far too often in this industry. The spinning numerals and flying tourbillon all work together to generate a sense of light and airiness inside this drum of a watch. Pun intended.
Underdog: Fam Al Hut Möbius
This watch, which has also been nominated in the 2025 Louis Vuitton Watch Prize for Independent Creatives, has been gaining a real cult following of late. The original pill-shaped case and extremely evocative construction of its complication, placing as many working parts on display as possible, has caused a number of people to grow totally infatuated with it. For me, it is one of the best examples of independent, modern watch design. It’s clear how free from constraints the team were here and how they decided to test the limits of what form a watch can take. And while doing so, they have not neglected the watchmaking side, ensuring purists are still catered for.
Mechanical exception
Big dog: Greubel Forsey Nano Foudroyante
This watch had me utterly fascinated when it first launched. The 10th fundamental invention of Greubel Forsey, it shows how this brand can not be cornered into being the crazy tilted tourbillon guys that put little globes in their watches. The fact that they are able to conceive, design, develop, and produce something that simultaneously speaks to historical complications but modern tastes in its execution… Impossibly complex to produce in the way they have, this watch deserves all the praise it has gotten already and more.
Underdog: Hazemann & Monnin School Watch Subscription
Designing a movement from the ground up is an incredibly hard thing to do. But for this duo that met at the watchmaking school workbench, Hazemann and Monnin, it was the only approach acceptable. The name pays tribute to that scholarly meeting, and its wickedly complex movement speaks to just how good their education was. The H01 calibre inside has a sonnerie au passage combined with an instantaneous jump hour, which are both perfectly synced up, with all of the exciting movement components moved in front of the dial. These guys are young and just starting out, so if they miss out this year, I’m certain they will be taking home a Golden Hand sooner rather than later.
Chronograph
Big dog: TAG Heuer Monaco Split Seconds Chronograph F1
Do TAG make excellent chronographs? Yes. And have they been making them for years? Absolutely. Am I excited to see the modern direction that TAG has taken with this split-second version of its Monaco? You betcha. While this most complicated watch TAG currently makes made its debut in 2024, encasing it in white ceramic and giving it this new futuristic look has elevated the watch to another level for me. And if we are talking about a chronograph category, you can never count TAG Heuer out.
Underdog: Louis Moinet 1816
Similarly, we cannot talk about chronographs without mentioning the originator of the complication, Louis Moinet. While the brand has travelled in many different directions over the years, in this new 1816 model, the brand has managed to bring elements of the original chronograph into a modern design vernacular with this integrated bracelet design. The view of the movement is an exceptional one, with all the key components of this column wheel configuration on full display. The chronograph also features a jumping minute counter, a feature I really appreciate, as it aids massively in helping read your final elapsed time.
Sports
Big dog: TAG Heuer Formula 1 Chronograph x Oracle Red Bull Racing
Just as you can’t talk about chronographs without talking about TAG, you also can’t talk about sports. And this year, TAG Heuer has been all over Formula 1 thanks to the massive deal that LVMH has signed with the sport that made the Swiss brand its official timekeeper. Given that F1 is the fastest growing sport in the world right now and TAG are all over it, it would make sense that they produce an incredibly sporty model to mark the occasion. And what could be more sporty than this tough, angular titanium chronograph, produced in collaboration with one of the most successful F1 teams of the 21st century?
Underdog: Norqain Wild One Skeleton 39
We have been big fans of the Norqain Wild One here at Time+Tide since it came out, and so when I saw a smaller version released at this year’s Watches and Wonders, I was instantly intrigued, as I have always felt the original just too big for my wrists. I tried it on and instantly fell in love. The bright colours are fitting for the brand and feel very summery, while the tough, rubberised exterior still fits the sporty brief. Norqain has managed to shrink a masculine watch without turning it instantly feminine, and I’m a big supporter of that.
Jewellery
Big dog: Bulgari Serpenti Aeterna
The Bulgari Serpenti has been a legend in the watch and jewellery worlds for decades. To dare to mess with a design like this takes a lot of guts, and I am personally a big fan of this new direction. Turning one of the most subtle and flexible watches in the world that could wrap all the way up your arm into a solid bangle with a sharp new look creates clear delineation without leaving the original design entirely. There’s certainly no mistaking this for anything but a Serpenti.
Underdog: Simon Brette Chronomètre Artisans Joaillerie
Simon Brette might be one of the most exciting young artisanal watchmakers working right now. While the rest of his cohort are looking to double down on the classic independent style that has been laid out by the likes of F.P. Journe and Rexhep Rexhepi, Simon decided to explore the craft of gem setting in his watch that is already prize-winning, having taken home the Horological Revelation prize back in 2023. Could we see him beat the odds here and take home a second?
Artistic crafts
Big dog: Hermès Arceau Rocabar de rire
It’s hard to talk about the artistic crafts in watchmaking today without mentioning Hermès. The luxury house has built up its watchmaking department in recent years and in doing so has worked with some incredible artisans to help bring these watches to life in an unmistakable Hermès fashion. This lighthearted take on micro-art shows the levity that Hermès is able to deploy, as it doesn’t have to take itself too seriously while still executing these highly skilled crafts at an impeccable level.
Underdog: Alto ART 01 Falcon Eye
I’ve spoken a few times now about this young brand Alto. I’ve been following their journey closely, and when I first got my hands on the Falcon Eye model of the brand’s inaugural ART 01 watch, it was amazing the level of attention to detail they had gone to. Doing marquetry with semi-precious stones is nothing new. But doing it with these long, thin slats, and then arranging them so they form a gradient giving the impression of looking into a falcon’s eye, felt to me as though it was the height of this artistic craft. And if that’s not deserving of at least making the short list for this award, I’m not sure what is.
Petite Aiguille
Big dog: Christopher Ward C12 Loco
So I do risk coming across as biased on this, having the British guy suggest the British watch will win the Petit Aiguille, but I struggle to think of another watch in this price range of CHF 3,000 and CHF 10,000 that has made more of an impact. The Loco has been impactful in more ways than one. Not only is it a remarkable design, but the ability for Ward to create it shows how much the company has grown in the last few years. Its big brother, the Bel Canto, took home the same award in 2023, and think the Loco has every chance of repeating its success.
Underdog: Ōtsuka Lōtec No. 5 Kai
If you want to talk about a rising star in this sector of the market, Ōtsuka Lōtec has been gaining more and more traction of late. This Japanese brand has managed to construct an unmistakable visual identity, which is not always easy to do without blowing the budget. To bring in a wandering hours complication into this price point in such a visually rich manner shows how serious the brand is to be taken moving forward. They are a proper contender here this year, and I would expect them to be for years to come as well.
Challenge
Big dog: Studio Underd0g x Fears The Gimlet
Yes, I know, another British brand, but in all the years I’ve been in this industry, I’ve never seen a group of people run to try and acquire a watch before, but at British Watchmakers’ Day this year, I saw grown men sprint in order to be one of the first in line to buy this watch. The blending (or rather shaking) of Fears and Studio Underd0g’s very different aesthetics and conceptual outlooks would not have been an easy task, but it seems the two of them complement each other perfectly in this cocktail inspired watch.
Underdog: Dennison Tigers Eye
While I saw grown men run for the big dog in this category, there is only one watch that we consistently struggle to hold stock of at our London Studio, and that’s the Tigers Eye from Dennison. There is something so captivating about this dark, striped stone that draws you in, and then when you hear how little it costs, that knocks you out. Dennison is making things happen in this accessibly priced end of the market, and so to see them reach the short list at the very least will certainly confirm what we have known for a long time now.
Time only
Big dog: Daniel Roth Extra Plat Rose gold
I’ve waxed lyrical above about the incredible impact of the reincarnation of Urban Jürgensen, and I think a lot of that excitement was only possible because of how well the reintroduction of Daniel Roth was handled by the team at La Fabrique du Temps Louis Vuitton. The Tourbillon that kicked things off was sensational and in my mind there was only one direction they could go for the next chapter and that was this, the Extra Plat. And I was not disappointed, it has been executed perfectly, and we expected nothing less after the Tourbillon.
Underdog: Raúl Pagès RP2
It’s almost a shame that the RP2 has to go up against the might of Daniel Roth, as I think this may be even more deserving of the award, but I don’t think it will get all the votes it needs to take its crown. This watch took my breath away when I first got the chance to hold it at the AHCI exhibition in Geneva: the dial is the definition of minimalism, while the movement is the physical embodiment of its creator’s perfectionism. I could, and probably should, talk at great length about this watch, but just know that it is an incredible addition to this very strong Time Only category.
Mechanical Clock
Big dog: Louis Vuitton Montgolfière Aéro
I’ll admit, out of all the categories that we’ve gone through already, the Mechanical Clock selection was the one I am least familiar with. But I have spent some time with this miniature hot air balloon from Louis Vuitton, and the clockwork inside is just as impressive as the artistry to make it a sculptural art piece. As I think those two elements are of equal importance here, the clocks have to be mechanically impressive, but they also have to be works of art you’d be happy to display in your home at all times. Unlike watches, you can’t swap them out and mix and match depending on your outfit. And here, Louis Vuitton has managed just that.
Underdog: Fiona Krüger Mystery Box
Fiona Krüger is an incredibly highly accomplished independent watchmaker who has created some incredibly unique watches already, but when I saw this clock and got to grips with its concept, it was clear that she has taken her singular approach and simply scaled it up. I enjoy a good, fully realised concept and that is exactly what Fiona has done with this Mystery Box. However, whether it will win or not is still a bit of a mystery to me…